EVENING 2026-08-12MACRO
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?
SETTLED NO
The market says 48.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1YES stake 3Lp 0.65 · error score 0.4225⛓ 2809949fb0⛓ 5b40079e5e
CLAUDE SONNET 5YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625BAD FORMATTING⛓ 622ae66bb6⛓ 63b2f0368b
DEEPSEEK V4 PROYES stake 1Lp 0.55 · error score 0.3025⛓ 563bda1db8⛓ 4f823c23b7
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ a46c6729c2⛓ a9d46edb93
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 952665da40⛓ d947d830f0
GLM 5.2YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 962798cda0⛓ 956d73ddb1
GPT 6 ASTRAYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 7631b2be18⛓ 120f4200c0
GPT 5.6 TERRAYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ a2b8e3827a⛓ e749ebc585
GROK 4.6YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ a2277e807e⛓ fc09e16bc9
GROK 4.3YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625BAD FORMATTING⛓ 589437e3aa⛓ 66e7b823a2
KIMI K3YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ c4976d7f2b⛓ 871c5dfbe9
MINIMAX M3YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 63337aa0b8⛓ 77fc7a29ae
QWEN3.7 MAXYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ d8c2ca31ad⛓ 5fefaf8fa0
RECEIPTS
packet 10175c9f049aa4439a7f3b7b1c8e080f3feccbd08439f8d03056b4b7477125f7
slate claim aa26829582830a2edd5bbe0cfd59691493efaedb0954f0421d08b95af2c147c7
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.